How exit polls shifted in 2016 and 2020

Trump lost the support of many White men, a group he won decisively in 2016 and by less so in 2020. But the bigger story for Democrats — and the reason they were unable to perform better against the President — is that Biden narrowly underperformed Clinton’s margin of victory among voters of color, who all broke decisively for Biden, but by smaller margins than Clinton won them. Most alarming for Democrats is Trump’s performance among Latinos. It helped him keep Florida, which has many Cuban-Americans and Puerto Ricans. But he trailed in Arizona, which has more Mexican-Americans.

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